South
Korea-North Korea: South Korean analysts and experts have begun
speculating on the timing of the next North Korean nuclear detonation.
Some of them think the detonation will come ahead of the late Kim
Chong-il's birthday, which falls on 16 February, to honor Kim Jong Un's
father.
Other
South Korean experts judge that 12 February is the most probable date
because that is the date the US President will deliver the State of the
Union. That date also is two days after the eighth anniversary of the
North's first public declaration that it possesses nuclear weapons on 10
February 2005.
Still
others predict the test will be around the inauguration of South Korean
President Park Geun-hye on 25 February. A few think that the date will
be in April just ahead of the anniversary of Kim Il-sung's birthday.
Comment:
The North's first nuclear test was on 9 October 2006, Columbus Day,
while the second one was on 20 May 2009 Memorial Day. The timing of the
past two tests had nothing to do with the US observances. They seemed
driven more by the state of North Korean science, meaning they attempted
to test when they thought they were ready.
Kim
Jong Un, however, seems determined to honor his father with sensational
achievements. The nuclear weapons program was Kim Chong-il's claim to
have exceeded the achievements of his father, Kim Il-sung. That makes
next week a time to watch. A detonation on 12 February would upstage the
State of the Union address as well as honor Kim's father's birthday.
It is
still not certain that the North will detonate. In April 2012, the North
made advanced preparations for a test so that South Korea warned then
that a test was imminent, but none occurred. There is sufficient evidence to warrant increased vigilance at this time, even if a launch is postponed.
North
Korea: On Tuesday, the Korean Central News Agency published another
official statement. "The DPRK (Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea, or
North Korea) has drawn a final conclusion that it will have to take a
measure stronger than a nuclear test to cope with the hostile forces'
nuclear-war moves that have become ever more undisguised."
Comment:
No analysts or commentators have a good idea what the North Koreans
mean by "a measure stronger." The range of provocative actions is too
large and the North's interpretation of what might impress the US is too
distorted for an educated guess.
The
North Koreans are backing themselves into a corner with this kind of
rhetoric. They have the option of backing down, in a supposedly
statesman-like gesture to preserve regional stability. Thus far they
have not moved in that direction.
China-North
Korea: China on Wednesday criticized North Korea after the Pyongyang
government threatened to take action beyond a nuclear test in response
to UN sanctions. The Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said, "China is
extremely concerned by the way things are going. We oppose any behavior
which may exacerbate the situation and any acts which are not beneficial
towards the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula."
In an
editorial published on 6 February, the Chinese news outlet Global Times
wrote, "…if North Korea insists on a third nuclear test despite attempts
to dissuade it, it must pay a heavy price. The assistance it will be
able to receive from China should be reduced. The Chinese government
should make this clear beforehand to shatter any illusions Pyongyang may
have...."
"The
nuclear issue complicates Sino-North Korean relations, adding strategic
difficulties to China in Northeast Asia. China has many misgivings when
handling relations with Pyongyang, but there is a general principle:
China is never afraid of Pyongyang. Pyongyang's diplomacy is
characterized with toughness. But if Pyongyang gets tough with China,
China should strike back hard, even at the cost of deteriorating
bilateral relations.... "
Comment:
Global Times is a state-run Chinese publication whose editorials tend
to reflect official views in Beijing. After reading the editorial,
several Western commentators opined that China is bluffing, using
editorials instead of taking action.
NightWatch
disagrees. In the past 20 plus years of intermittent international
crises over North Korea's nuclear program, the Chinese government never
has been so explicit in public about the behavior it expects from North
Korea nor so direct in threatening serious consequences for disregarding
Chinese instructions.
The
seriousness of China's position is indicated in is adoption of the
classic diplomatic tactic of surrendering the initiative. By means of
the editorial China has positioned itself publicly so that it has no
choice but to take strong action if the North Koreans detonate a nuclear
explosion. The Chinese will say they warned North Korea and it has
brought the consequences on itself.
Egypt:
At the meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. The president
of Senegal commended France on Wednesday for its military intervention
in Mali against Islamist militants, telling leaders of fellow Muslim
nations that they cannot allow "a minority of terrorists to commit
crimes, distort our faith and deepen hatred for Islam." Senegal
President Macky Sall's opening address exposed divisions among the
member nations taking part in the two-day summit in Cairo, according to
press accounts.
Also during the summit, Iranian President Ahmadi-Nejad said Iran is ready to provide a "big credit line" to help Egypt.
Comment:
Egypt is nearly insolvent. Mursi's government shows no ability to
manage the economy and has no plan, except to take handouts from the
Arab monarchies. No news outlet has reported the Egyptian response to
Iran's offer, but Ahmadi-Nejad has not received a warm welcome in Cairo.
Tunisia:
The killing of an outspoken critic of the Islamist-led government on
Wednesday sparked the worst street protests in two years in Tunis, Sidi
Bouzid and other towns. In Tunis, thousands of city-dwellers clashed
with police to protest the Islamist-inclination of the government in
stifling freedoms won two years ago in the first of the Arab Spring
uprisings.
The
government responded by dissolving the Ennahda-led Islamist coalition
government on Wednesday and promised rapid elections. Prime Minister
Hamadi Jebali announced that a small, unelected, interim cabinet of
technocrats would replace his Islamist-led coalition.
The
quick crisis management actions responded to the murder of Chokri
Belaid, a left-wing lawyer with a modest political following who has
been an outspoken critic of the Islamist government and violence by
Muslim extremists.
Comment:
Tunisia is the birthplace of the Arab Spring. Its transition from
strong-man government to democracy was supposed to be a model for the
other Arab states. The moderate, secular constituency in Tunisia resides
in the cities, as it does in Egypt.
Elections
are a sop to the city crows and a subterfuge because the Islamists are
likely to dominate new elections as they did those in October 2011 when
they polled 42per cent. With a renewed mandate, the Islamists could
claim their government is legitimate and reflects the will of the
largest segment of the electorate. That would create a compression and
repression scenario which usually leads to even greater instability and
more violence.
Mali:
Update. France's Defense Minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, said on Wednesday
that French and Malian patrols clashed with Islamist militants who had
fled into the Sahara desert, and that the resistance indicated the
conflict had not been won.
In an
interview with Europe 1 radio, Le Drian said, "There were clashes
yesterday at Gao because from the moment where our forces, supported by
the Malian forces, started undertaking missions and patrols around the
towns we had taken, we encountered Jihadist groups that fought. It's a
real war."
Comment:
The clashes near Gao in northeastern Mali appear to be the first
counterattack by the Islamists. Last week a Gao resident told the media
that the Islamists would attempt to retake the town. The French and
African soldiers have recovered the towns, but not yet beaten the
Islamists.
The
second problem for the French is their supposed local allies around
Kidal, the Touaregs, who are trying to expand the area they control.
Their leaders apparently judge this is the best opportunity they will
have to compel the Bamako government to recognize Touareg rights and
achieve self-rule in their territories in the north.
The
Touaregs are looking to the French to mediate their grievances with the
government in Bamako and seizing as much territory as possible to
strengthen their negotiating position. The good news is that the group
now active favors secular government.
End of NightWatch for 6 February.
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