No, the unequivocal bad news came in the seasonal adjustment changes. To step back for a second, statisticians seasonally adjust data so they can better understand the trend. Of course, more houses are sold in the summer and more toys are sold in December so without seasonal adjustment the data would look so volatile as to be nearly useless.
But seasonal adjustment is as much an art as a science and on Thursday the DOL economists refined their seasonal factors.
Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomic Advisors explains the bad news:
“On average, claims for each week of this year have been revised up by 3K, with the biggest revisions coming in January, where the two sub-340K readings — we were always suspicious of them — have been moved up by 15K and 13K respectively. The underlying trend in claims is still falling, but we expect the downtrend will stall or even reverse for a time in Q2/3 as the sequestration causes jobs to be lost. The labor market has improved, but it is a long way from normal.”
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/03/28/the-bad-news-in-jobless-claims-came-in-the-new-seasonal-adjustment/
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