It won’t happen today or tomorrow,
but one of Moscow’s leading activists says Russia’s dissidents are
coordinating strategies for action once Putin finally falls.
Here in Kiev, where she finally escaped to exile, Kurnosova is now working to bring together the best minds of the Russian exile communities throughout the former Soviet empire. By the time Vladimir Putin’s rule comes to an end, an exiled government will be ready to help reform Russia.
Kurnosova badly wants the change to take place democratically. But she’s also a realist, and knows how difficult that will be. “I would say there is about a 5 percent chance for a blood-free change of regime in Russia,” she told The Daily Beast. “I will keep trying even when there is a 1 percent chance left.”
Kurnosova says many Russian political exiles feel they are more useful being free and acting abroad, coordinating their actions and strategy, “so that by the next Russian presidential election in 2018 or, if something unexpected happens, sooner, the opposition has civil support, a strategy, and, most importantly, has people ready to present an alternative to Putin’s system.”
Russian exiles in Kiev are building bridges to Russian exiles in the Baltic countries, Moldova, Georgia, as well as in Eastern and Western Europe and the United States, says Kurnosova. Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a former oligarch and prisoner now based in Switzerland, could lead the Russian movement of political exiles, she said.
“We are still trying to figure out what Khodorkovsky’s agenda and future plans are,” Kurnosova tells me. “I would join his team, but his words that, should he become a leader of Russia, he will not give Crimea back to Ukraine, made me concerned.”
Today Ukraine is home to more than 100 exiles from Russia who have sought formal political asylum, according to official data from its migration service. Some of them, including Kurnosova, escaped the country as they faced a possible jail term for their opposition activity. Some were already investigated, had become fugitives, and left the country illegally.
By last fall, the Memorial human-rights center was reporting 46 high-profile political prisoners in Russia, and many of them were Kurnosova’s friends. When somebody broke into her rented Moscow apartment in September, she decided it was time for her to get out of there. She moved to a friend’s place, leaving most of her belongings at home. Then, on her last night in Russia, several policemen called at the door of her friend’s apartment; that made it clear to Kurnosova that police were looking specifically for her.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/12/16/russians-exiles-organizing-to-oust-putin.html
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