Tuesday, December 16, 2014

What is Vladimir Putin doing in the skies of the Baltics? A near-miss between a Scandinavian airliner and a Russian spy plane shows the Kremlin's war gaming ?

 


Being an airline pilot in the Baltics isn't an easy job these days. As well as freezing winter temperatures and heavy fogs, there's a growing risk of crashing into a Russian spy plane or military bomber.
That, at least, is the view of the government of Sweden, which protested over the weekend that a Russian reconnaissance plane had come dangerously close to an airliner flying from Copenhagen to Poland.
 
The near-collision occurred because the spy aircraft had turned off its "transponder" – the device that alerts commercial radar systems to a plane's presence. It is the second time a near miss has happened this year, and, according to Peter Hultqvist, the Swedish defence minister, it is only a matter of time before catastrophe occurs.
Mr Hultqvist's warning follows similar ones from Jens Stoltenberg, Nato's new secretary general, who told The Telegraph only last month that Russia was routinely despatching long range bombers to probe Europe's borders, again with scant regard for the safety of passenger jets.
So what is Russia playing at? Is this a dress rehearsal for an invasion, a scenario that the Kremlin feels it needs to practice again given the fallout with Nato over Ukraine? That is certainly one way of looking at it: similar manoeuvres were practised a great deal by both Russian and Nato military aircraft during the Cold War. However, when it comes to war gaming in the Baltics, Moscow sees it not so much as an invasion, as a case of taking back what rightfully belongs to Russia.

During Soviet times, the tiny but strategically useful Baltic states were subjected to a process of "Russification", whereby large numbers of Russians were sent to effectively colonise them. By monopolising many of the key positions in power, they ensured unquestioning loyalty to Moscow, but at the same time built up a growing sense of resentment among the ethnic Latvians, Estonians and Lithuanians over whom they ruled. So when the Soviet Union began to collapse, all three states lost little time in declaring independence.

Two decades on, they are among the most enthusiastic new members of Nato, membership of which they regard as a guarantee that they will never live under Russian rule again.
The Kremlin, however, regards their membership of Nato as an act of gross betrayal, and since Vladimir Putin's rise to power, has frequently reminded them that in Moscow's view, they are part of Russia's backyard whether they like it or not.

In 2007, when ethnic Russians in Estonia rioted over plans to remove a Soviet era statue from the capital, Tallinn, Russian activists launched a large-scale cyberattack on the Estonian government websites, which experts believe was orchestrated directly by the Kremlin.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11294348/What-is-Vladimir-Putin-doing-in-the-skies-of-the-Baltics.html

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